000
WTNT31 KNHC 202044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 80.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
COASTAL INTERESTS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT21 KNHC 202044
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
COASTAL INTERESTS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 80.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 80.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.2N 78.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 38.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 80.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT41 KNHC 202045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
ALBERTO DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OF A HEALTHY
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIR FORCE PLANE THAT SAMPLED THE STORM ONLY
MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT...YET SFMR
VALUES WERE AS HIGH AS ABOUT 50 KT. THE SFMR ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY
TOO HIGH BASED ON COINCIDENT SPIKES IN THE RAIN RATE AND A
WELL-DOCUMENTED HIGH BIAS AT LOW-END TROPICAL STORM WIND SPEEDS.
IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS
OF 50 KT NEAR THE SURFACE. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING HELD
AT 40 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
DECOUPLED...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOW BE TAKING SOME TIME
TO SPIN DOWN.
ALBERTO IS INGESTING DRY AIR...AND IT HAS MOVED OVER SHELF WATERS
THAT ARE COLDER THAN 26C. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STREAM AGAIN WHEN IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY...THE OTHERWISE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY.
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALBERTO COULD BECOME POST-
TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EVEN COLDER WATER...WITH
DISSIPATION POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
THE MOTION HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY...AND IT APPEARS
THAT ALBERTO IS BEGINNING ITS ANTICIPATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH MONDAY...AND ALBERTO WILL RESPOND BY
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS STILL A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AT 72 HOURS...HEDGING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 30.9N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 30.8N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 31.2N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 34.7N 73.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 38.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
FONT11 KNHC 202045
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 5 8 14 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 18 28 32 30 34 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 79 66 58 55 46 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 3 5 7 6 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 6 5 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAYPORT NS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
